And now for the heartwarming side of the housing bust: It’s helping some
people buy homes that they couldn’t afford a couple of years ago.
Michelle Dudley for years commuted 50 miles each way to her job as a civil
servant in Anaheim, Calif., because she and her husband, Don, didn’t feelthey could afford a home near her office. This week, though, the Dudleys
moved into a three-bedroom house in Anaheim that they recently bought for
$390,000, down from the original listing price of $445,000 in November.
Similar homes in the area were selling for as much as about $600,000 two
years ago, says Erin Eckert, an agent for Redfin, an online real-estate
brokerage that represented the Dudleys.
Still, many potential buyers are holding out for better deals. The Wall
Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 major
metro areas points to continued downward pressure on prices in much of the
country.
As usual, there is huge variation from town to town. In most of the country,
inventories of unsold homes are no longer growing quickly, as they did in
2006 and 2007, but remain huge. The supply has shrunk modestly in Boston and
Denver over the past year. But the number of for-sale signs continues to
rise swiftly in the Portland, Ore.; Seattle; Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; San
Francisco; and Washington areas.
The biggest gluts are in Florida. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale area, the
supply of single-family homes and condominiums is enough to last 34 months
at the average sales rate of the past year. That months-supply figure is
about 21 in Orlando, 18 in Tampa and Las Vegas, 17 in Detroit and 14 in
Phoenix. A six-month inventory is generally considered a rough balance
between supply and demand.
For condos alone in Miami-Dade County, the supply would last 45 months at
the current sales rate.
Prices are coming down fast. Real-estate data company Zillow.com estimates
that the median value for all homes in the 12 months ended March 31 fell 25%
in the Las Vegas metro area, 19% in Miami and Orlando, and 16% in Phoenix.
The typical value is still rising modestly in a few places, including the
metro areas of Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Dallas and Houston. One hitch
for house hunters, though, is that mortgage lenders have become much more
restrictive with loans. And even buyers who can get financing still face a
tricky question: Should I wait for a lower price? Buying now, with home
prices generally falling, is “a gamble,” says Ms. Dudley, who just moved
into her new Anaheim home. But, she says, home prices will rise again at
some point. Meanwhile, she was tired of her long, expensive commute.
Kevin McCleary, a computer-security consultant, remained a renter through
the housing boom even though he could afford to buy, because he believed
prices were reaching unsustainable levels. In October, though, he and his
fiancée finally decided to buy a foreclosed home in Herndon, Va., and
negotiated a price of about $443,000. The same home sold in 2005 for
$645,000. “I don’t believe we hit it at the perfect time,” Mr. McCleary
says. On the other hand, he says, “we were just tired of putting our lives
on hold.”
During the boom, home prices rose far faster than incomes. Home prices as
measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index shot up 74% in the six years
through 2006, while median household income rose 15%. (Neither figure is
adjusted for inflation.) Now prices in many areas are adjusting back toward
more affordable levels, a process that could take several years.
In an analysis of 330 metro areas in last year’s fourth quarter, National
City Corp., a banking concern, and Global Insight, an economic research
firm, found that home prices were sharply overvalued in relation to
household income and other factors in 21 metro areas, down from a peak of 58
metro areas in the second quarter of 2006.
Economists at the two firms look at home prices in relation to household
income and other variables, including population density (an indication of
how much land is available) and past differences in prices caused by factors
like climate and schools. They then classify as “overvalued” metro areas
where home prices are more than 33% above a level that could be explained by
fundamental drivers of housing costs. Among areas where this analysis finds
that home prices are still too high are Bend, Ore., Atlantic City, N.J.,
Miami, Honolulu and Portland, Ore.
In most of the country, “we’re getting a return to normalcy” in the relation
between home prices and incomes, says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at
National City. But, he adds, prices may overshoot on the down side.
Economists at Goldman Sachs say home prices are likely to level off by late
2009. They also point to improving affordability. Goldman’s chief U.S.
economist, Jan Hatzius, says the share of a typical family’s income needed
to pay mortgage payments on a median-priced home averaged about 17.5% from
1993 to 2003, before jumping to 26% in 2006. The figure now has fallen to
20% and is likely to keep declining as home prices fall.
Mr. Hatzius estimates that average U.S. home prices have fallen 15% since
the second quarter of 2006 and projects they will fall an additional 10%
before stabilizing late next year. But he also sees a risk that home prices
will fall further, particularly if the foreclosure problem proves worse than
already expected.
Goldman estimates that foreclosures will add 1 million to 1.5 million homes
to the for-sale market this year, compared with less than half a million a
year before 2007.
During the first quarter, homes acquired by lenders through foreclosure
accounted for 33% of all sales of previously occupied homes in California,
up from just 3.2% a year earlier, according to Data Quick Information
Systems, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif.
Homeowners hoping to avoid a foreclosure are adding to downward pressure on the market, says Daniel R. Odio, owner of DROdio Real Estate Inc. in
Alexandria, Va. Such people often seek to unload their homes through a
“short sale,” in which the price is less than the amount owed on the
mortgage and the lender agrees to forgive the difference. Homeowners hoping
to do a short sale sometimes advertise very low asking prices to lure
buyers, even if there is little chance the lender would accept bids at that
level, Mr. Odio says. The “fictional” asking price, in turn, misleads
potential buyers about the value of nearby homes.
The supply of lower-priced homes has surged in some areas. Steven Thomas,
president of Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo, Calif., says there
are about 1,260 condos available for under $250,000 in Orange County,
Calif., or about triple the year-earlier total.
By JAMES R. HAGERTY Wall Street Journal
April 24, 2008; Page D1
Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com